Adam Edelman is a political reporter for NBC News. The. Barnes led Johnson 49.4 percent to 47.1 percent. When results started trickling in around 8:30 p.m. Tuesday, Barnes took an early lead over Johnson, but the Republican slowly closed the gap as more of the state's precincts reported. As Johnson opened a lead, it sent the Republican incumbent's supporters into a frenzy. It's looking all but certain that Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes will be the Democratic opponent to take on the much-maligned Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson in November. Legal Statement. Utah wildlife officials suggest catching this tasty invasive species, Oregon lawmakers propose bill that would give $1K per month to homeless people, Why Michigan Republicans are fretting about 2024, Democrats plot effort to counter Tucker Carlson on Jan. 6 narrative, Ticketmaster, PayPal, eBay are hassling customers to report sales even though the IRS says they dont have to, Biden to trigger tax fight Senate Democrats dont want, To topple Trump, GOP challengers lean on personality over policy, Pence disagrees with Haleys call for competency tests: The American people can sort that out, Biden mocks Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene: Isnt she amazing?. His campaign released a statement saying it has known all along this race "would be incredibly close.". Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. Editor's note: WPR's Jonah Chester, Joe Schulz and Andrea Anderson contributed reporting to this story. Incumbent Sen. RonJohnson(R-Wis.) and Democratic challenger MandelaBarnes are neck and neck in Wisconsins Senate race, according to a new CNN poll. President Biden had a narrow victory in the state in 2020 after former President Donald Trump won it in 2016. Wisconsin's GOP senator, Ron Johnson, will face off against state Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes in November. ", Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., speaks to supporters after arriving at an election night party in Neenah, Wis., Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. Republicans have hammered Barnes and other Democratic candidates on crime in recent weeks, while Democrats see abortion rights as an issue that will energize their base in November. In response to the August polls, a spokesperson for Barnes' campaign said the results show that "Wisconsin voters know how Ron Johnson has spent his decade-plus in office enriching himself and his wealthy donors on the backs of their hard work.". The schools previous poll, from September, showed a much tighter race, with Johnson leading Barnes 49% to 48%. Sen. Ron Johnson is leading Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes in a new poll of the Wisconsin Senate race released Wednesday. The AP called the race after Johnson claimed his win earlier in the morning and other national media outlets such as NBC News,CBS News, and CNN projected Johnson would win. Republican gubernatorial nominee Tim Michels led Democratic Gov. Fox News's Bradford Betz contributed to this report. Legal Statement. Vermont Peter Welch (D) vs. Gerald Malloy (R) 34. In the race for U.S. Senate, Democrat Mandela Barnes is supported by 51% and incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is the choice of 44%, while 1% say "neither," 3% say they don't know and 1% decline to answer. But despite the ex-senator leading in most public polling that year, he went on to narrowly lose to Johnson once again. In the September survey, Johnsons lead among that group was 48% to 46%. (Photo by Three Lions/Hulton Archive/Getty Images) OAN Deven BerryhillUPDATED 6:45 PM PT - Monday, February 27, 2023 A well-known British newspaper recently . Mandela Barnes is leading in recent polls against the pro-Trump senator, whose positions on abortion and same-sex marriage, as well as . Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. ", Barnes did not take the stage on election night. Johnson promised to be a "citizen legislator" and serve just two terms. Home; News. The 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. Johnson was also significantly underwater with 47 percent of voters expressing an unfavorable opinion of the senator and 38 percent saying they had a favorable opinion. "Barnes is really going to have to execute a strong strategy of defining himself positively and pushing back against an enormous amount of negative campaigning that is already coming his way and will surely only escalate between now and Election Day," Chergosky said. Poll: Ron Johnson widens lead over Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin Senate race The Marquette Law School survey has Johnson racking up support of 52 percent of likely voters compared with. With 98 percent of votes counted, AP results showed Johnson defeating Barnes 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent. making false or misleading claims about the shots, Johnson has hired one of Wisconsin's 10 fake electors, most expensive election contests in the country, settle the abortion issue via a direct referendum, Bernie Sanders endorses Mandela Barnes for US Senate, Ron Johnson calls for annual approval of Social Security, Medicare funding, Democratic Lt. Gov. That poll . Tony Evers, sought to portray Johnson as a champion of monied interests and pledged to work with lawmakers to enact policies that would benefit working-class families, including an expansion of the child tax credit. Johnson has long been known as a polarizing and controversial figure in politics who made headlines for pushing drugs like hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin as early treatment options during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mandela Barnes during a debate on Oct. 7. Sign up for notifications from Insider! as well as other partner offers and accept our. Mandela Barnes. Johnson has said he supports an abortion ban that includes exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother, but has not called for the Legislature to change the states 1849 law. Baldwin was first elected to the Senate in 2012 and took office in January 2013. Among the slightly larger sample of 802 registered voters, Johnson maintains 48% support versus Barnes' 45% support. A pedestrian walks by a sign in front of a polling location on Tuesday, April 5, 2022, in Milwaukee, Wis. Angela Major/WPR. For weeks, Wisconsin Republican Senator Ron Johnson and his allies have been running a set of attack ads against Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes about crime.One ad focuses on violent crime . Meanwhile, 7 percent said they did not know who they would vote for, while 3 percent said they would vote for someone else, would not vote or refused to answer. "Of course, we've said that before," Chergosky said. Mandela Barnes in his bid for a third term in office. In the final weeks, Johnson focused on crime in particular, unleashing a barrage of negative ads that highlighted rising crime rates and singling out things Barnes had said about criminal justice reform. Johnson had built a small lead in most polls over Barnes though within the margin of error after he began his relentless focus on crime, and his victory suggests the strategy was a success. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., poses for photos with supporters at a election night party in Neenah, Wis., Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. Marquette's August survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. In his order, Judge Juan Colas wrote that Wisconsin elections have been conducted for 56 years without a legally binding definition of what constitutes a witness address on a ballot. It was all to play for Thursday night as Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson met Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Wisconsin's Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Lt. Gov. The Associated Press calls the race for Johnson at 11:46 AM. You've successfully subscribed to this newsletter! The lieutenant governor and former State Assembly member is expected to face a difficult campaign as he seeks to unseat Johnson, who has served in the Senate since 2011. Approximately 50% of likely voters said they support Johnson in the race, compared to 48% for Barnes, according to the Marquette poll of 679 likely voters. The margin of error for the poll's likely voters sample is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. U.S. Senate candidates Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson sparred over a wide range of issues - everything from decriminalizing marijuana and immigration to the minimum wage, abortion and crime - during their first debate leading up to the 2022 fall midterm election.. Democrats won or held onto key seats, including John Fettermans win over Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. He's also been a leading skeptic of COVID-19 vaccines making false or misleading claims about the shots. The poll from Marquette Law School suggests Johnson, a. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes will become the Democratic Party's nominee to face off against GOP Senator Ron Johnson in November after his top opponents dropped out and endorsed his campaign this weekwith polls suggesting the liberal candidate has a slim advantage. Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson suspended his Senate campaign on Monday, followed by Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry on Wednesday. Sign up now! Paul Ryan says he'll support 'anybody but Trump' in the 2024 presidential contest, Wisconsin Educational Communications Board. Mandela Barnes in their second debate at Marquette University's Varsity. He said residents should also expect "a new low" in terms of how negative campaign ads will be this election cycle. InWisconsin's Senate race between Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Lt. Gov. While Johnson has outperformed . I will do everything I can to help make things better for Wisconsinites and to heal and unify our country," he continued. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. Barnes' campaign and allied outside Democratic groups launched a series of attacks against Johnson painting him as an out-of-touch millionaire who worked to secure tax cuts for himself and billionaire donors in 2017. That number had fallen to 9 percent in Marquette's Aug. 17 poll. That's still slightly higher than the 36 percent who view Johnson favorably. Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger Lt. Gov. Liberal groups in Wisconsin seeking to change rules governing absentee ballots suffered a blow this week after an appeals court and a circuit judge ruled that ballots cannot contain partial addresses of witnesses. MADISON, Wis. (AP) U.S. Senate Republican Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes got personal in their final debate Thursday before the Nov. 8 election, with each candidate . The CNN poll was conducted Oct. 13-17 and surveyed 905 registered Wisconsin voters, 714 of whom were likely voters. After midnight, the gap between Barnes and Johnson closed slightly and the audience in Neenah became less energetic. Among those citing integrity as most important, Barnes won 54% of the vote, while among those saying a candidate who shares values with them is most important, 60% voted for Johnson. But there are key differences this year, said Chergosky. "That's how close we should assume the race will be, regardless of the specificity of those numbers. Barnes has a 51%-44% lead over Johnson in the Wisconsin Senate race, per a new Marquette Law poll. Hungry? Democrats had initially been hopeful that they could oust Johnson, who was increasingly defined by headlines over his statements on issues such as abortion, his perpetuation of dubious and unproven Covid treatments, and his ties to the Jan. 6 riot and fake elector plot to help throw the 2020 election to then-President Donald Trump. NBC News projects Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin wins re-election, unrelenting attacks against Barnes on crime. The Republicans in both races hold a lead among independent voters, with Michels squeaking out a 1 point lead (44 percent to Evers 43) and Johnson dominating with 51 percent to Barnes 45. The Johnson campaign said the numbers were reflective of a race that was correcting course after Democrats cleared a path for Barnes before the ends of a largely clean primary campaign. IE 11 is not supported. FOX NEWS POLL: POLARIZATION DEFINES THE MIDTERM ELECTION. In a possibly positive sign for Barnes, far more respondents to the poll said they viewed Johnson unfavorably. Only 16 percent had an unfavorable view of the Democratic lieutenant governor, compared with 46 percent who said the same of the GOP senator. That poll surveyed 756 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points. "There is no path mathematically for Lt. Gov. Barnes sought. He pulled ahead of Barnes in recent polling after a September onslaught of negative ads that painted Barnes as a soft-on-crime, radical liberal. U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson is increasing his lead over Lt. Gov. Barnes became Wisconsin's first Black lieutenant governor in 2018 and he would become the state's first Black U.S. senator if he defeats Johnson. Mandela Barnes concedes US Senate race to Republican incumbent Ron Johnson, Sarah Godlewski exits Democratic US Senate primary, clearing the path for Mandela Barnes, After clearing Democratic field in US Senate Race, Mandela Barnes faces toughest battle of political career, Evers proposes $750M for broadband expansion amid massive federal investment in high-speed internet, Evers proposes $3.8B in state building projects. Johnson's win reaffirmed the Wisconsin GOP's strength in its suburban and exurban heartlands. 2023 by Wisconsin Public Radio, a service of the Wisconsin Educational Communications Board and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Only 1 percent of likely voters are still undecided in the gubernatorial race, according to the poll, which surveyed 652 likely voters in Wisconsin from Oct. 3 to Oct. 9 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. Adam Edelman is a political reporter for NBC News. This week . For an optimal experience visit our site on another browser. 2023 by Wisconsin Public Radio, a service of the Wisconsin Educational Communications Board and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Johnson leads with men and older voters.. Recent polling shows Lt. Gov. Prior to several outlets projecting him as the winner, Johnson, who will now serve his third six-year term, said in a written statement that the corporate media refused to call a race that is over. Johnson has outperformed polls before, but political experts note added challenges this election cycle. 2022 #WISen General Election Poll: Mandela Barnes (D) 43% Ron Johnson (R-Inc) 43% @claritycampaign / @TheOtherMandela (D) Internal ~ 756 LV ~ 9/8-9/11 https://t.co/OXfsRBbJJX On two large screens, the audience at the Johnson event quietly watched Fox News election coverage and let out loud groans and boos when Democrats were projected to win other high-profile federal races. Reach her at caitlin.yilek@cbsinteractive.com. Wisconsin has been viewed as a swing state in recent elections but has generally gone for Democratic presidential candidates in elections going back to 1988. Part of the shift can be attributed to likely independent voters. Barnes has citedformer President Barack Obama as his inspiration for entering politics. Johnson is running for reelection to a third term, while Barnes hopes to topple the GOP. Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes in tight Senate race in Wisconsin CBS News Battleground Tracker poll. Mandela Barnes offers his state's votes to nominate former Vice President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee for president at the 2020 Democratic National Convention at the . While Johnson has outperformed polls before, political experts note unique challenges this election cycle. The small margins indicate a tight race with the midterms just two weeks away. After Barnes won an all but uncontested U.S. Senate Democratic primary in August, the lieutenant governor led Johnson by 7 percentage points in Marquette polling. (AP Photo/Morry Gash). Lt. Gov. The Most Interesting Articles, Mysteries and Discoveries. "No matter what anyone says, we are committed to making sure every vote is counted. Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for reelection against Democratic Lt. Gov. He said clerks have been legally free to interpret the term in good faith, drawing on non-binding guidance from the Wisconsin Elections Commission, its predecessors and advice from attorneys. But a successful rebrand, as well as unrelenting attacks against Barnes on crime and criminal justice issues, appeared to help Johnson's standing among voters. On the other hand, Mandela Barnes said he agreed to be a part of the debate anchored by the Main Street Alliance and the Wisconsin Farmers Union because the group commonly lines up with the democrats. Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Lt. Gov. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. Market data provided by Factset. Since then, Johnson has hired one of Wisconsin's 10 fake electors to work for his reelection campaign, and he's spent more than $20,000 for legal consultation with a Wisconsin law firm that assisted former President Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the state's 2020 election results. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in. Barnes focused much of his closing message hammering Johnson over his opposition to abortion rights an issue Democrats across the country had hoped would energize their base in the midterms following the Supreme Courts reversal of Roe v. Wade in June. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. If Barnes were to win, he'd become Wisconsin's first Black senator. Mandela Barnes, is the choice of 48%. Among all registered voters surveyed, it's a much closer race. Voters in Wisconsin grade President Biden's performance, criticize and defend him on top issues, Gavin Newsom attacks federal judge overseeing California's assault weapons ban: 'This sickens me', NRSC launches funds to give Republican Senate candidates a 'war chest' for key 2024 Senate races, House Republicans slam DOD's 'unacceptable' delay in providing answers on improper release of military records, Biden admin rolls out cybersecurity strategy aimed at thwarting borderless cyber threats, ransomware. The Marquette poll found that more voters had a favorable opinion of him than not, but 30 percent said they haven't heard enough about Barnes. "Now, that's what Democrats have been doing to Ron Johnson for nearly two years," said Lee. The two candidates are scheduled to hold their second and final televised debate on Thursday. MIDTERM STUDY FINDS MAINSTREAM MEDIA GAVE REPUBLICANS 87% MORE NEGATIVE COVERAGE THAN DEMOCRATS. U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., left, and his Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes shake hands before a televised debate, Friday, Oct. 7, 2022, in Milwaukee. Wisconsins gubernatorial race, meanwhile, has tightened: 47 percent of likely voters support incumbent Democratic Gov. Johnson was one of Trump's most ardent legislative supporters of the 2017 tax reform bill, which overhauled the tax code and repealed the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate. AP Photo/Mike Roemer, "We've looked very closely at the numbers," said Johnson. At the beginning of the election cycle, Johnson was seen as one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the U.S. Senate. The margin of error was 4.2 percentage points overall and 4.5 percentage points among likely voters. Barnes did not officially concede the race Tuesday night or Wednesday morning as he waited for all the votes to be counted. Barnes to overcome his 27,374 vote deficit. U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., left, and his Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes shake hands before a televised debate, Friday, Oct. 7, 2022, in Milwaukee. Some ads focused on positions Barnes had taken or statements he had made such as his support for ending cash bail and saying that reducing prison populations is now sexy while others made misleading claims about his tenure as the state's lieutenant governor, like accusing his administration of having paroled hundreds of violent offenders. Now, it's Barnes who is relatively unknown among Wisconsin voters. Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting. The Oshkosh Republican led Barnes, a Democrat, 51% to 46% among likely voters in a poll commissioned by AARP. The margins of error for registered voters and likely voters are +/- 4.3% and +/-4.8% respectively. Morry Gash/Associated Press Mandela Barnes speaks to supporters during his campaign for U.S. Senate on Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, in Middleton, Wis. Angela Major/WPR. The poll, whose results were released on Wednesday, has Johnson racking up support of 52 percent of likely voters, compared with Barnes 46 percent. Barnes raised nearly $34.6 million, spent $32 million, and had almost $2.6 million in the bank, as of October 19. AP Photo/Mike Roemer. Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes in tight Senate race in Wisconsin CBS News Battleground Tracker poll. Marquette Law School defines "likely voters" as those "who say they are certain to vote or who say they have already voted. Johnson maintained a conservative voting record during his two terms in the Senate. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, who was first elected during the conservative Tea Party wave in 2010, defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Sign up now! Johnson, a former plastics company executive from Oshkosh, was first elected in 2010, defeating former Democratic U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold in a Republican-wave election. Photograph: Morry Gash/AP Ron Johnson's campaign of 'race and fear' is affecting Senate race that. But I just want to give you guys the sense that this race is over.". At right, Barnes offers his state's votes to nominate Joe Biden for president at the 2020 Democratic Convention. On the presidential level, Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic nominee in every election from 1988 to 2020 except for 2016, when Trump narrowly defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Badger State. Although Wisconsin's primary won't take place until August 9, Barnes, who was already leading in the polls, is all but guaranteed to secure the Democratic nomination. Independent candidate Joan Beglinger who ended her campaign in September but will still be on the ballot garnered 4% in the poll, while 1% of respondents said they were undecided. These four House Republicans broke with the GOP to oppose inflation estimates McCarthy, GOP pump brakes on release of Jan. 6 footage to Tucker Carlson, Christie: Trump grand jury foreperson did a lot of damage to case. In 2016, Johnson stunned political observers when he defeated former Democratic U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold after Marquette polling in late August showed Feingold ahead by 4 percentage points. Most young men are single. Barnes' lead was within the polls' 2.9 percent margin of error. 'The most vulnerable Republican incumbent' The Barnes strategy is to define Johnson as a changed man, someone who went to Washington as an insurgent candidate but then enmeshed himself into the. Copyright 2023 CBS Interactive Inc. All rights reserved. While Barnes quickly became a favorite among Democrats before winning the August primary, Lee said the lieutenant governor is still relatively unknown to the state as a whole. defeated former Democratic U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold, Democratic Lt. Gov. The 2016 Marquette poll showed a full 30 percent of respondents didn't know enough about Johnson to form a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. Eran Ben-Porath contributed to this report. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. There is no path mathematically for Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated the battleground Senate race as a toss-up, and other recent polling has shown the two candidates nearly deadlocked as the midterms draw nearer. Marquette polled 801 registered voters via phone interviews from Oct. 3-9 (652 of those are considered likely voters), with more than half of the interviews coming before last Friday's debate. 2016: Johnson (R) +3.4|2010: Johnson (R) +4.9, Senate Map,Polls,Projection|House Map,Polls,GenericVote|Governor Map,Polls,Projection|2022,'24 Polls, Senate Map,Polls,Projection|House Map,Polls,Generic Ballot|Governor Map,Polls,Projection|2022,'24 Polls, RCP Average:Johnson +3.6RCP Ranking:Toss UpRCP Projection:GOP HoldKey 2022 Races:Governor|Senate|WI-3, 2020:President|WI-32018:Governor|Senate|WI-1|WI-32016:President|Senate|WI-82014:Governor|WI-6|WI-72012:President|Governor (Recall)|Senate|WI-7|WI-82010:Governor|Senate|WI-3|WI-7|WI-8, All Wisconsin Senate - Johnson vs. Barnes Polling Data. The Wisconsin Senate race is a virtual toss-up, with Republican Sen. Ron Johnson edging Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes within the margin of error in a Marquette University Law School poll. The new survey found Johnson up just 1 percentage point among likely Wisconsin voters, with 50 percent saying theyd learn toward the Republican if the election were held today and 49 percent saying the same of Barnes. Barnes appeared with Lasry and Godlewski as they made their announcements, praising their campaigns. For questions or comments, contact WPRs Audience Services at 1-800-747-7444, email listener@wpr.org or use our Listener Feedback form. The Marquette Law School survey has Johnson racking up support of 52 percent of likely voters compared with Barnes 46 percent. A Fox News survey of. A previous April survey by Marquette Law School showed that half of Wisconsin's voters did not believe Johnson actually cared about them. The U.S. Senate race in the battleground state of Wisconsin is among closely watched contests on the national scene as Republicans hoped to gain seats in the U.S. House and Senate. (Last month, the Republican-controlled state Legislatureblocked initial effortsto get that question on the ballot.). At Johnson's election night watch party in Neenah, the crowd was in high spirits throughout the evening giving loud cheers as they watched Fox News election coverage of the race. Through late October, super PACs, politically active nonprofit organizations, and other non-candidate groups combined to spend an additional $112.9 million advocating for or against the candidates. Mandela Barnes, the lieutenant governor of . Johnson also holds a 2-point lead over Barnes in favorability ratings among likely voters, with 46 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of the Republican and 44 percent saying the same. Support of 52 percent of likely voters in a new low '' in terms of how negative ads. Wins re-election, unrelenting attacks against Barnes on crime legislator '' and just. 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